Strategy: Harmonic Pattern Trading

Target profit: 75pips per week
Indicators: Channel Movement, Harmonic Patterns, RSI
Important chart pattern: double-top/bottom and Head & Shoulder, divergence and convergence
Important candlestick: Doji, bullish/bearish engulfing

My Trading Mantra

1. Objectively identify my edges - I have a system here that works.
2. Pre-define the risk of every trade.
3. Completely accept the risk. Consider the money GONE.
4. ACT on my edges without reservation or hesitation. Follow the rules and take every trade that meets the conditions.
5. Pay myself as the market makes money available. Take the profits and be happy. Even if compounding my account, pay myself something out of my profits each month.
6. Continually monitor my susceptibility for making errors.
7. Understand the absolute necessity of these principles, and therefore I never violate them.

Sunday, July 26, 2009

Things successful forex traders do - from Investopedia

Approach
  1. Trading Timeframe
  2. Methodology / Strategy
  3. Pairs that validates by the strategy
Attitude
  1. Patient. Wait for strategy to validate entry.
  2. Discipline. Pull the trigger when strategy tells you so, especially for stop loss.
  3. Objectivity. Do not be emotional, just rely on your strategy that gives consistent result.
  4. Be realistic on how much you can earn from your trading timeframe.
Implementation
No system will trigger a 100% sure win. The art of profitability is in the management and execution of trade.

The Bottom Line
There is only profit-making or loss-making trade. Therefore, remember the following 2 rules

Rule 1: Never lose money
Rule 2: Remember Rule 1
Your trade results will show if you are doing what is correct or you are doing what you like

Factsheet for 6 major currencies

British Pound Factsheet
The British pound is the official currency of the United Kingdom. Next to the U.S. dollar and the euro, it is probably the most widely held reserve currency.

Trading Mechanics
Quote Convention:
Value of a Pip for a 100k lot: USD $10
Currency Nicknames: Sterling or Cable

Most Active Trading Hours
2:00AM ET / 2:00 GMT+8, London Open
4:30AM ET / 4:30 GMT+8, UK Economic Releases
8:30AM ET/ 8:30 GMT+8, U.S. Economic Releases

Key Currency Crosses
EUR/GBP
GBP/CHF
GBP/JPY

Central Bank - Bank of England (BOE)
Mandate: Price Stability;
Keep Inflation below 2%
Created: 1694
BoE: Mervyn King

General Economics Statistics
2007 GDP Estimate: GBP 1.35 Trillion (USD $2.7T)
Population*: 60.9 Million
Interest Rate**: 1.0%
Inflation*: 4.70%
Trade Balance*: -8.2 Billion GBP
*National Statistics Oct 2008, **Bank of England Feb 2009

Market Moving Economic Releases
BoE Rate Decision
Claimant Count
Consumer Prices
GDP (Gross Domestic Product)
Industrial Production
Retail Sales

Important Correlation
GBP/USD and FSTE


Japanese-Yen Factsheet
The Japanese yen is the official currency for Japan.

Trading Mechanics
Quote Convention: JPY
Value of a Pip for a 100k lot: USD $9.40

Most Active Trading Hours
7:00PM ET / 7:00 GMT+8, Tokyo Open
7:30PM ET / 7:30 GMT+8, JPY Economic Releases
8:30AM ET/ 8:30 GMT+8, U.S. Economic Releases

Key Currency Crosses
EUR/JPY
NZD/JPY
GBP/JPY
CAD/JPY
AUD/JPY
CHF/JPY

Central Bank - Bank of Japan (BOJ)
Mandate: Maintain Price and Financial System Stability
Created: 1882
BoJ Governor: Masaaki Shirakawa

General Economic Statistics
2007 GDP Estimate: JPY 480 Trillion (USD $4.37T)
Population: 127 Million
Interest Rate*: 0.10%
Inflation**: 2.10%
Trade Balance†: -324 Billion JPY
*Bank of Japan, Nov 2008
**Statistics Bureau Sept 2008
†Japan Ministry of Finance, Sept 2008

Market Moving Economic Releases
BoJ Interest Rate Decision
Consumer Prices
Corporate Goods Price Index
GDP (Gross Domestic Product)
Retail Sales
Tankan Report

Important Correlation
USD/JPY and Nikkei


Canadian Dollar Factsheet
The Canadian dollar is the official currency of Canada. The USD/CAD is the sixth most actively traded currency pair by turnover, according to the Bank of International Settlement’s 2007 FX report.

Trading Mechanics
Quote Convention:
Value of a Pip for a 100k lot: USD $9.68
Currency Nicknames: Loonie, Buck

Most Active Trading Hours
7:00AM ET / 7:00 GMT+8, CAD Economic Releases
8:30AM ET/ 8:30 GMT+8, U.S. Economic Releases

Key Currency Crosses
CAD/GBP
AUD/CAD
EUR/CAD

Central Bank - Bank of Canada (BOC)
Mandate: Price Stability; Keep Inflation near 2%
Created: 1934
BoE Governor: Mark J. Carney

General Economic Statistics
2007 GDP Estimate: CAD $140.9 Billion (USD $128.1B)
Population*: 33 Million
Interest Rate**: 1.0%
Inflation*: 3.4%
Trade Balance†: CAD $4.7 Billion
*Statistics Canada, Oct 2008,
**Bank of Canada Jan 2009
†Statistics Canada, Oct 2008

Market Moving Economic Releases
BoC Rate Decision
Consumer Prices
Employment Change
GDP (Gross Domestic Product)
IVEY PMI (Purchasing Managers Index)
Retail Sales

Important Correlation
CAD/USD and Oil


Swiss Franc Factsheet
The Swiss franc is the official currency of Switzerland. The USD/CHF is the fifth most actively traded currency pair by turnover, according to the Bank of International Settlement’s 2007 FX report.

Trading Mechanics
Quote Convention: CHFMeans
Value of a Pip for a 100k lot: USD $9.09

Most Active Trading Hours
2:00AM ET / 2:00 GMT+8, London Open
1:45AM ET / 12:45 GMT+8, Swiss Economic Releases
8:30AM ET/ 8:30 GMT+8, U.S. Economic Releases

Key Currency Crosses
EUR/CHF
CHF/JPY
GBP/CHF

Central Bank - SWISSNATIONALBANK (SNB)
Mandate: Maintain Price Stability; Inflation Target of Less than 2%
Created: 1907
Central Bank Governor: Jean-Pierre Roth

General Economic Statistics
2007 GDP Estimate: CHF 500 Billion (USD $424B)
Population*: 7.6 Million
Interest Rate**: 0.50%
Inflation†: 2.90%
Trade Balance**: 1.43 Billion CHF
*Swiss Federal Statistical Office June 2008,
**Swiss National Bank Feb 2009,
†Swiss Federal Statistical Office Oct 2008

Market Moving Economic Releases
Consumer Prices
GDP (Gross Domestic Product)
KoF Leading Indicators
Retail Sales
SNB Interest Rate Decision
UBS Consumption Index

Important Correlation
USD/CHF and EUR/USD


Euro Factsheet
The euro is the official currency of 16 states in the European Union, known collectively as the Eurozone.

members of the eurozone*
Austria
Belgium
Cyprus
FInland
France
Germany
Greece
Ireland
Italy
Luxembourg
Malta
Netherlands
Portugal
Slovenia
Spain
Slovakia
* As of January 2009

Trading Mechanics
Quote Convention:
Value of a Pip for a 100k lot: USD $10
Currency Nicknames: Anti-Dollar

Most Active Trading Hours
2:00AM ET / 2:00 GMT+8, London Open
4:00AM ET / 4:00 GMT+8, Economic Releases
8:30AM ET/ 8:30 GMT+8, U.S. Economic Releases

Key Currency Crosses
EUR/GBP
EUR/CHF
EUR/JPY

Central Bank - european central bank (ecb)
Mandate: Price Stability; Keep Inflation below 2%
Created: 1998
Central Bank Governor: Jean-Claude Trichet

General Economic Statistics
2007 GDP Estimate: EUR 8.8 Trillion (USD $12.32T)
Population: 320 Million
Interest Rate*: 2.0%
Inflation**: 3.6%
Trade Balance**: -64 Billion EUR (seasonally adjusted)
*ECB Jan 2009,
**ECB Sept 2008

Market Moving Economic Releases
ECB Rate Decision
German Consumer Prices
German GDP (Gross Domestic Product)
German IFO (Business Confidence)
German Unemployment
Manufacturing and Service Sector PMI

Important Correlation
EUR/USD and Oil


US Dollar Factsheet
The U.S. dollar is the official currency for the United States. 85% of all currency transactions involve the U.S. dollar.

Trading Mechanics
Quote Convention: USD
Currency Nicknames: Greenback, Buck

Most Actively Traded Currency Pairs
EUR/USD
USD/JPY
GBP/USD
AUD/USD
USD/CHF
USD/CAD

Most Active Trading Hours
2:00AM ET / 2:00 GMT+8, London Open
8:30AM ET/ 8:30 GMT+8, U.S. Economic Releases

Central Bank - Federal Reserve (Fed)
Mandate: Price Stability and Sustainable Growth
Created: 1913
Central Bank Governor: Ben Bernanke

General Economic Statistics
2007 GDP Estimate: USD $13.84 Trillion
Population*: 305 Million
Interest Rate**: 0.25%
Inflation***: 5.40%
Trade Balance****: -USD $59.3B
* U.S. Census Bureau Oct 2008,
**Federal Reserve Feb 2009,
*** Bureau of Labor Statistics Sept 2008,
**** U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis Oct 2008

Market Moving Economic Releases
Consumer Confidence
Fed Interest Rate Decision
GDP (Gross Domestic Product)
Non-Farm Payrolls
Retail Sales
Service and Manufacturing ISM
Trade Balance
Treasury International Capital Flow Report (TIC)

Important Correlation
USD/JPY and S&P 500

Your trade results will show if you are doing what is correct or you are doing what you like

Friday, July 24, 2009

24 July 09 CAD good trade

10pips!

Your trade results will show if you are doing what is correct or you are doing what you like

24 July USDJPY losing some steam




Was doing a quick glance in the morning across the 6 pairs at 1hr frame and saw potential losing steam in USDJPY. Went over to 5mins to further investigate to find that indicators are in favour of short. Entered the trade with confidence and wrap up 22pips.


Your trade results will show if you are doing what is correct or you are doing what you like
This is a loss trade. Should avoid entering trade (short) if it has not hit the top of i-reg and the momentum is still showing uptrend. This rule only invalidates if the 1hr charting shows otherwise.

Your trade results will show if you are doing what is correct or you are doing what you like

Wednesday, July 22, 2009

22 July 09 GBP and JPY


Another 2 good trades.

Your trade results will show if you are doing what is correct or you are doing what you like

21 July 09 USDCAD rally up 90pips!


If you were still awake at 11pm, you would have seen the USDCAD rally. The rally continued all the way till 1am SGT. It would have been such a sweet sweet profit of 90pips, if only my eyes and my brain were obedient enough to see it through....Congrats to those who caught the wave...




Your trade results will show if you are doing what is correct or you are doing what you like